As a Subcontract Administrator and Buyer within the Supply Chain Efforts at Lockheed Martin, I am expected to utilize various compliance and Federal Acquisition Regulations along with internal company guidelines to consistently make rational and beneficial decisions that are in the best interest of the company where I work. I am faced with daily challenges to selecting the best option of several choices which are all critical to the success of our aircraft production efforts as well as to the success of my own efforts towards a position in management. In our Textbook, Wharton (2001) discusses various techniques of determining the best approach for selecting the best option in our abilities for making our decisions.
Chapter 3 reveals several ways in which researchers solve multistage problems by applying formulas which discernibly produce the greatest chance of success. I found a sense of agreement with the dynamic programming method explained in the text. There are some industries and fields where this type of decision making might seem common practice and there are often industries or field where this type of methodical and systematic approach could stifle decision-making processes based on creative efforts and brainstorming type tools. In these non-structured environments, one might feel lost just looking at the equations involved with this process.
My own decision-making style is different depending on the environment where my decisions take place. I evaluate the criteria of the processes of my decisions based on the rules required and my own personal or professional experiences versus solely evaluating based on my best guess and experience I might need to follow making choices at home. At work, while I enjoy using data and calculating risk and factors to make the best choices in my purchasing contracts and during supplier fact finds and negotiations, I like to have some variability and flexibility in my decisions when dealing with multistage decision-making. I feel that too many variables play a part in these type of critical decisions and very few things stay constant – one key ingredient is the power of flexibility. It appears that dynamic programming counts on the future to be constantly predictable, when in the modern era, stimulus's are ever-changing and fluid.
Prominently, dynamic programming motivates members to approach decision-making practices differently and tap into areas that may not get as much consideration when planning. Since “there is no one right answer” (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001, p.40) or method, I believe there are a lot of managers out there that use a form of similar computation but label it differently. It stands to reason, due the factors involved with dynamic programming, it would be more effective on business decisions rather than personal decisions – especially when the human elements must be taken into consideration.
For this very reason, the values we place on certain things and events cannot be taken into consideration when using this type of tool. I believe the long-term effects on planning compliment business aims, as they take probability and risk into account, and the answers to questions could be simplified as long as these numbers are accurate. Although, “dynamic programming is a powerful tool” (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001, p.42); honestly, I feel that this practice wouldn't enhance my decision-making process because of the emphasis that I place on flexibility and using experience and intuition as drivers. I take decisions one step at a time in my personal life and use other calculations and ethical and regulatory considerations when planning and making decisions in my professional environments.
I too find myself deep diving problems and spending too much time on my accumulation of key bits of knowledge, as outlined in the reading. Also, I don't really know that I have any concrete decision-oriented practices. Most frequently, I tend to research all options available to me and consider their results (i.e. dynamic decision making) before making a choice. Other times, I tend to make decisions impulsively – as I have this innate ability to “fly by the seat of my pants,” but less now being a husband and father to two girls – where this type of decision making affects more than me. As you can see, my methodologies fluctuate (ADD in conflict with Tina’s Structural Approaches). Occasionally, I do develop what I think of as “tunnel vision” or as I have come to learn as Kanter’s “zooming in” when pursuing an assigned task or special project, and I think Wharton's text would also consider this myopia. (Kanter, 2011) I become so focused on a single task that it is at the risk of neglect of another task – and some of these task being of greater importance or need. If I did consider the formulas and kept long-term values in mind for the results I wish to attain, then my decision-making process might also be improved.
I truly believe that no one is born a great decision-maker, yet learning the techniques offered in our text and through the culmination of years of professional and personal experiences; we can become formable decision-makers. Our video this week was another one of those TED Talk “aha” moments when Daniel Gilbert was talking about Bernoulli’s Equation on how we leverage the ability to gain something with the value that it will give us as the expected value of the decisions we make. (Gilbert, 2005) I too found myself agreeing with another student in this weeks DQ’s post when Terrance Le Shore shared the value of understanding how to make good decisions should be something we learn at a younger age, as it might save us from a lifetime of regret on the bad choices we have made. While it might seem like this would be a game changer, many of us are given the right information from our parents or adult influencers, and we still make a bad choice. I think in reality as we learn from our decisions (good or bad) we would miss the opportunities of developing our Emotional Intelligence by missing out on these life-affecting decisions.
I am coming to believe that Optimal dynamic decision analysis might be the most efficient method for decision making (at least for me) because it does consider the present facts of the case but not at the neglect of future outcomes. They are analyzed in relation to one another and their interconnectedness is always at the forefront. With these thoughts in mind, I would like to utilize this method more frequently. It will allow me to continue to be goal-oriented but not at the expense of inaction. I'll know how my current choices align with future outcomes, and this will allow me to make better decisions in the present. Of course I am also blessed with being balanced in life with Tina, my wife as we complement each other in the same way that we have come to understand each other’s abilities and opportunities for improvement, which at times keeps me from making a bad choice, and at times helps her make choices with considerations outside of the box.
Reference:
Gilbert, D. (2005, July 1). TED Talk. Retrieved from Dan Gilbert: Why we make bad decisions: http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_gilbert_researches_happiness
Hoch, S., Kunreuther, H. & Gunther, R. (2001). Wharton on Making Decisions. John Wiley & sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey
Kanter, R. M. (2011, March 29). Zooming: How Effective Leaders Adjust Their Focus. Retrieved February 03, 2016, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saNj6B0Vasw
Yukl, G. A. (2013). Leadership in organizations (8th ed.). Boston, MA: Pearson.
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